None rate Deputy Prime Minister Michael Heseltine's chances any more ("the lion is getting mangy" is a typical view) and few are willing to punt on Kenneth Clarke. His politics seem to trundle down the middle, yet he is acceptable to the right, too."Younger MPs concur, but speak of him as a leader-after-next, rather than a successor. He is regarded as having done a much better job in the principality than his predecessor, John Redwood. "Hague is the guy who must set out his stall," said an old warhorse in the 1922 Committee of backbench MPs "At present, he is everybody's favourite. In private, they talk of little else.A discreet sample of back-bench opinion has come up with some very interesting conclusions.

First, and by almost universal consent, watch out for William Hague, the Welsh Secretary and youngest member of the Cabinet, who will appear tomorrow morning to talk about keeping the Kingdom United. How does Michael Howard outflank Jack Straw on the Right? Can Kenneth Clarke be more of an Iron Chancellor than Gordon Brown says he will be?The answer is that they must, because the real, unpublished agenda at Bournemouth is: who will succeed John Major? Officially, MPs and constituency "representatives" (they hate to be called delegates) are sworn to a mafia- style omerta. The conference agenda, already published, promises a succession of ministers strutting their stuff and showing how much more tough they are, or caring, or whatever they have to be to look more competent than their Labour shadows It will not be easy. The received wisdom on the back-benches is that if John Major falls off his soap-box and loses, he will be gone within a week.