Anecdotal evidence suggests that many of those offered passports are taking them up immediately. However, the Institute of Human Resources Management research suggests that although the number of those returning is rising significantly, only a fifth remained in the colony before going back to their new homes.No one knows whether the British nationality scheme, which gave passports to 50,000 families, but allows them to remain in the colony indefinitely, will have its desired effect of "anchoring" key people to Hong Kong by providing a secure escape-hatch. The large numbers of those preparing to go become more alarming when added to the many who have been leaving every year for the better part of a decade.The number peaked at 66,000 in 1992, three years after the Tiananmen Square massacre, reflecting the average two to three years it takes to prepare for emigration.The government has been saying the outflow from Hong Kong is increasingly counterbalanced by an inflow from those who established residency abroad and are returning to secure better-paid work. Thus it may be realistic to assume that about 12 per cent of the population are in a position to leave.However, the project's research suggests a combination of factors, including right of overseas abode through family ties, could allow as much as 20 per cent of the population to go."This introduces a considerable element of instability to Hong Kong not present in other entities", said Michael DeGolyer, the project's director. Almost half the police officers above the rank of senior superintendent have told the force they intend leaving.A report to be published soon by the Hong Kong Transition Project, which is monitoring attitudes to the transfer of sovereignty, indicates that 80 per cent of the population are prepared to make a definite commitment to staying in the territory.The report states that about 7 per cent of the population already hold foreign passports and can leave at a moment's notice, while 5 per cent are applying.

The senior ranks of the civil service, where many officers have right of abode in Britain, look set to thin rapidly. There are already shortages of well-qualified managerial staff. The government admits this figure might be correct but says its own estimates, based on information from consulates, suggest 46,000 may leave. Whatever the outcome, no one denies that those leaving are drawn from the elite of skilled and entrepreneurial people who leave hard-to-fill gaps. The survey, by Hong Kong's Institute of Human Resources Management, suggests emigration will rise by 23 per cent this year, with 53,000 people leaving.

The colony returns to Chinese sovereignty in less than 10 months. Previous predictions that the bulk of the exodus had tapered off now appear to have been over-optimistic. A new survey suggests the exodus from Hong Kong will increase this year, with more than 1,000 people leaving each week, a level not seen since the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. The current foreign policy calculation should be made on the basis of economic benefit against the level of US wrath.

South Africa's priority has to be the prosperity of its people."Foreign policy is about making hard choices I think the US is big enough to recognise that.". And a large political donation from Taiwan to the ANC in the run up to the elections.If the deal with Iran goes ahead, despite the US's condemnation and criticism at home that it would contravene South Africa's commitment to human rights, it may actually reflect a growing maturity and independence.Dr Mills says the country's foreign policy is still more rooted in idealism than most others, but decreasingly so. Critics, he said, were ignoring South Africa's regional successes, including its revitalisation of the 12-member South African Development Community, which had become no more than a talking shop.They also forgot that in the past two years the foreign affairs department had seen a massive expansion abroad, from a mere 30 representatives during apartheid to the current 120.There had been disasters, such as Mr Nzo's comments this year on the Lockerbie bombing, supportive of Libya. Privately they admit a foreign policy weakness may be the country's attempt to be all things to all people. "Perhaps the real world is a lot tougher than we imagined."While the new South Africa was criticised for its apparent reluctance to play a greater role in regional conflicts, there was too little recognition of the heavy legacy of the previous government, which had intentionally destabilised the region.