In private, they talk of little else.A discreet sample of back-bench opinion has come up with some very interesting conclusions. First, and by almost universal consent, watch out for William Hague, the Welsh Secretary and youngest member of the Cabinet, who will appear tomorrow morning to talk about keeping the Kingdom United. How does Michael Howard outflank Jack Straw on the Right? Can Kenneth Clarke be more of an Iron Chancellor than Gordon Brown says he will be?The answer is that they must, because the real, unpublished agenda at Bournemouth is: who will succeed John Major? Officially, MPs and constituency "representatives" (they hate to be called delegates) are sworn to a mafia- style omerta. The conference agenda, already published, promises a succession of ministers strutting their stuff and showing how much more tough they are, or caring, or whatever they have to be to look more competent than their Labour shadows It will not be easy.

The received wisdom on the back-benches is that if John Major falls off his soap-box and loses, he will be gone within a week. "Why should he hang around and take all the flak?" asked one Major loyalist. (The actual words used were rather more earthy.) "He'll go off to make some money from his memoirs." The next six days, therefore, will be critical for the would-be premiers jostling for pole position. The election for the leadership of the Conservative Party that, on present trends, will immediately follow the other one. As They gather in blustery Bournemouth, the Tory faithful are understandably obsessed about the election No, no, not the general election.